The 89th session of the Texas legislature is underway, and thousands of bills were filed before the deadline earlier this month. But only a few will actually reach the governor’s desk.
Currently, over 100 of these bills directly target LGBTQ+ rights. These attack almost every aspect of life as a queer, or especially a transgender person, in our state — from healthcare to just generally being ‘out’ in public.
But the Texas legislature only meets for a handful of months every other year. During that limited window, lawmakers contend with a wish list of bills from the governor, lieutenant governor, and the speaker of the house. This agenda gets first priority, and can eat up a lot of time. Out of the 10,000s of bills that are introduced each year, only a tiny fraction pass. While the governor can, and does abuse his authority to call an “emergency” session from time to time, doing so costs the state hundreds of thousands of dollars.
It’s valid to feel afraid — the Republican Party is open about its desire to erase LGBTQIA+ people from public life in the U.S. However, only a small portion of the bad bills will even reach committee this year, much less have a chance of becoming a law. I think it’s important to know which bills are most likely to move, because it shows us where we should focus our efforts to fight back. If we stop bad bills this session, it might be harder to pass worse ones next.
While I don’t have a crystal ball, I’ve lived here a long time and interviewed a lot of experts on Texas politics. Here’s a few tips I’ve picked up to help you differentiate between a bad bill and a bad bill that has a chance of passing.
Let the experts do the research
When I spoke with Brad Pritchett at Equality Texas earlier this year, he warned me “Don’t go down the legislative rabbit hole looking at every bad bill.”
The nonprofits have people whose job is to research every bill that deals with LGBTQIA+ rights. If you want to get involved at the legislature, you can sign up for newsletters from groups like Equality Texas, ACLU of Texas, and Transgender Education Network of Texas, and look for upcoming trainings, advocacy days and action alerts from them. I’d also like to take this opportunity to thank one of my favorite experts, Ash Hall, policy and advocacy strategist on LGBTQIA+ Rights at the ACLU of Texas, who helped me with this article (but any errors or oversights are my fault, not theirs).
During these challenging times, when there’s endless doomscrolling available to us, it can be healthier to consume at least some of our news in digest form. Even so, you might see a bill being shared on social media, or hear about it from a friend, and would like to better understand whether it is likely to become a law. Here’s a few things to look for.
Is that bad bill going to pass? Texas legislature tips:
Here are four things I look for which help me easily understand which bills are most likely to move.
First start by searching for the bill itself on the Texas legislature website. Then look at the following:
- How low is the bill number? This one is easy. Bills in the single digits are usually “must pass” bills, while those numbered in the thousands are less likely to get voted on.
- Does it have cosponsors? One way lawmakers try to build momentum behind their bills is to get other legislators to sign on as cosponsors. A bill with a bunch of cosponsors is probably going places (and we might need to fight it), while one without any could be a dud.
- Is it scheduled for any hearings? This one changes over time, of course. You can look up the bill periodically, and see whether it’s starting to move through the legislative process … or not.
- Is it on the ‘wish list’ or priorities for Republican leadership? As I mentioned above, the governor, lieutenant governor, and the speaker of the house all have their own priority list. I’ve linked the 2025 versions here. If it’s on the wish list, we’re going to have to fight to stop it. But if it isn’t, it might not move at all.
Going deeper
Getting further down this rabbit hole requires understanding more about the quirks of Texas politics. For example, this year’s Speaker of the House Dustin Burrows was partly elected by Democrats, who helped more moderate Republicans block a more extreme speaker. So another factor would be, for example, did the author of the bill vote for the speaker of the house, and does he therefore owe them a favor? Does the author sit as chair or vice chair of any House committees? In general, you can assume the Senate, which is dominated by far-right Republicans and under the tight control of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, will pass a lot of terrible bills. But there’s a better chance of stopping, or softening, them in the House.
Fight where it counts
To reiterate, it’s valid to be afraid of the Republican endgame, especially when it comes to the increasingly dire state of transgender and LGBTQIA+ rights in the United States. When it comes to bad bills, the fear and cruelty they generate is on purpose. At the same time, if we’re going to spend our time protesting, testifying, and otherwise fighting bad bills, we should save our energy for the ones which might actually pass. In addition, there’s the small but real chance that if we draw too much attention to one of the more obscure bad bills, it could make Republicans more likely to advance it through the legislature.
Transgender, queer, gender divergent folks in the United States, especially in conservative states like Texas, should be considering our exit routes. You should know when it’ll be time to try to leave, if you’re able to do so. It’s probably a good idea to have your passport, even if it has an incorrect gender marker. Maybe pack a go bag. But remember, leaving is a privilege not everyone has, and, if we can, someone needs to stay and fight for the next generation of queer kids. As Margaret Killjoy said in a recent episode of Movement Memos, “The sky is falling, don’t worry, we’ve got this.”
Understanding Bad Bills in the Texas Legislature © 2025 by Kit O’Connell is licensed under CC BY 4.0. Copy, remix and share, just please give me credit.
